Monday, September 5, 2016

Breaking the Code to Madden 17 Scouting

One of my most popular posts ever is actually not about apply my mind to Christianity or politics or philosophy...but to Madden NFL video games. Oh well, I'm not complaining about readers, so let's update it for Madden 17!

What's Changed

For Madden 17, scouting has gotten much tougher in several ways. They are onto us! They changed four major things that make it harder...although not impossible. :-)

  1. Instead of spending 5 scouting points for the first attribute, now you have to spend 15. That makes initial inquiries eat up your scouting points REALLY fast.
  2. The Combine is no longer exact:  the combine has perhaps 10% variation built in, so someone who runs a 4.24 instead of being 99 speed is somewhere between 91-99 speed. This makes it more difficult to rely exactly on the Combine.
  3. There are more players in the pool, giving you more people to scout (and therefore, a lower overall percentage of players can be scouted).
  4. The number of "stud" players is much less. In an average draft, I'm seeing about 33 players who are above 78 overall, with only 12 of those having "superstar" or "quick" development traits. Only about 11 players in an average draft are 80+ overall. So it's much tougher to get a great draft.

But never fear...I do believe I've cracked the code again. And to be honest I think that the changes make it more realistic, more challenging and more fun. So I'm fully behind it.


Overall Strategies Recommended

  1. Start with the coach type who has the Expert Scouting Package. You're going to need all the points you can get.
  2. Scout every week. Otherwise you lose half that week's points--they don't all carry forward.
  3. Only scout players you actually want to know more about. If you are stacked at HB, don't waste points on HBs.
  4. Never spend points on FB, K, or P.
  5. Follow my guide below exactly. :-)
  6. Use your WATCH LIST to capture players who "pass" all the Scouting trials below. That way on Draft Day you can simply sort by "Watch List" and you have all your players.

Specific Details

For the specifics, you can download the entire guide here, or you can just bookmark this page (photos embedded below). 



PRE-COMBINE SCOUTING

Because we have to be picky on Scouting Points this year, we will wait on scouting certain positions until the Combine, using the 'free info' we get from it to help us sort out people. (If you get everything below done for the positions you want before the Combine, feel free to move forward to the "After Combine" section.)


For best results, follow the below order exactly, only deviating to "skip" positions of strength.

If someone fails to meet the criteria of the first bullet point, DO NOT WASTE ANY MORE POINTS. Move on to the next person.


1.  Quarterbacks
  • Throwing Power A- or higher
  • Minimum score B- or higher
  • At least Accuracy score (Acc Short, Mid, or Deep) should be a B
  • Don't get excited about:  Throwing on Run (only 2% of overall score)

2. Offensive Linemen
  • At least one B
  • Minimum score B-
  • For left tackles I strongly recommend a Pass Block of B or higher 
  • Don't get excited about:  Speed or Agility combine drills (all < 6% of overall score added together)

3. Free Safeties (I've rarely found 78+ FSs, so this is based on a very small sample size; just be aware it's a bit riskier)
  • Zone coverage B
  • Minimum score B-
  • Don't get excited about:  Hit Power (only 3% of overall score)
4. Halfbacks
  • Carrying B+ or higher
  • At least one B in:  Elusiveness, Trucking, or Ball Carrier Vision
  • Minimum score:  B-
  • Don't get excited about:  Stiff Arm (only 2% of overall score)
5. Defensive End
  • At least one B+
  • Power or Finesse Moves B-
  • Don't get excited about:  Hit Power (only 1% of overall score)
6. Outside Linebackers
  • Block shedding B+
  • Minimum score B
  • Don't get excited about:  Hit Power (only 2% of overall score)
7. Middle Linebackers
  • Tackle B+
  • Block Shedding B-
  • Minimum score C+
  • Don't get excited about:  Power or Finesse Moves (only 2% of overall score each)
8. Strong Safety
  • At least one B from the following:  Tackle, Zone Coverage, or Play Recognition
  • Minimum score:  B-
  • Don't get excited about:  Hit Power (only 4% of overall score)





POST COMBINE SCOUTING I

The first thing we do after getting scouting combine results is to REMOVE people from our watch list. Some of those above qualify until we see their measurable combine ratings, and now should be removed.

9.  Offensive Linemen
  • Remove anyone from your Watch List with less than 32 reps on the bench press. (This correlates to their Strength score.)

10.  Free Safety
  • Remove anyone from your watch list with a 40 yard dash slower than 4.60 seconds. (Speed)
  • Remove anyone from your watch list with a vertical jump less than 30". (Jumping)

11.  Halfbacks
  • You don't have to remove anyone here, but look at the 40 yard dash 3Cone, and Shuttle times.  Anyone who is very fast at all of these, and made it to your Watch List in step 4, is going to be very good.
  • (3Cone + Shuttle are the predictors for Agility and Acceleration).

12.  Defensive Ends
  • Add together 3Cone + Shuttle times.  If it is over 12.04, remove the player from your watch list; if below, they will have good enough Agility and Acceleration.

13.  Outside Linebackers
  • Remove anyone with 3Cone + Shuttle score over 12.04. You want them to be agile.

14.  Strong Safeties
  • Remove anyone slower than 4.76 in the 40 yard dash
  • Remove anyone with vertical jump < 30"



POST-COMBINE SCOUTING II

As a final step (if you have any points left!) we will look at those who we have not yet scouted.

15.  Cornerbacks
  • 40 yard dash must be faster than 4.60 seconds
  • 3Cone + Shuttle time added together must be less than 11.32
  • Man Coverage B-
  • Zone Coverage B-
  • Minimum score C+
  • Don't get excited about:  Press (only 3% of overall score)

16.  Defensive Tackle
  • Minimum weight:  300 pounds. (NOTE:  I don't think this matters....but so far I've not found a really good DT less than this. Could be coincidence, but I'm using this as a factor.)
  • Bench press must be greater than 32 reps
  • Block shedding B- or better
  • Minimum score C+ or better
  • Don't get excited about:  Pursuit (only 2% of overall score)

17.  Wide Receivers
  • 40 yard dash must be better than 4.60
  • 3Cone + Shuttle must be better than 10.80
  • Minimum score B-
  • Don't get excited about:  Spectacular Catch (it is only half as important as Release or CIT, and one third as important as Catching or Route Running)

18.  Tight Ends (Along with the Safety positions, this is the hardest to predict in my model)
  • 40 yard dash must be faster than 4.68 seconds
  • 3Cone + Shuttle time added together must be less than 11.56
  • At least one B in a catching skill (Catch, CIT, Route Running, etc.)
  • Minimum score C+
  • Don't get excited about:  Release (only 2% of overall score)




TIE BREAKERS

So on draft day, if you have two players in the same round or at the same position and can't decide, what do you do?

What I do is look at the heatmap below that I made, which pulls together how each position is calculated. I pick the one who, based on the info I have, I think will be best at the most key skills:





Conclusion


I hope that this is helpful for you guys! If you don't like it, remember that you didn't pay anything for it so get over it... ;-)

If you do like it, I would love for you to do the following things for me:

  1. Comment. Tell me that you like it.
  2. Post elsewhere about it. Reddit forums, Madden forums...let others know!
  3. Read other things on my site! I have a...unique way of looking at the world, which has given me tremendous spiritual peace and helps me avoid a lot of the stresses of this world, particularly politically, etc. I apply this same level of nerdity not only to Madden, but to how I live my life as well...and maybe you can benefit from it, too. If so, that makes me happy. :)

Happy drafting!