Friday, September 4, 2015

Breaking the Code to Madden 16 Scouting (Update 27 Nov 2015)


NOTE:  For the Madden 17 version, go here:  http://rebootchristianity.blogspot.com/2016/09/breaking-code-to-madden-17-scouting.html



Updated 27 November 2015

A recently released patch for Madden 16 altered some of the scouting rules, so I redid the analysis. So far it has held up pretty well--a few positions got harder to project, a few got easier.

Three notes before we start. just for information:

  1. One of my specialties as an engineer is measurement systems. Anyone in this field will tell you that the hard part is balancing "false alarms" versus "false acceptances." Take the smoke detector in your house, for example: make it too sensitive and you'll never miss a fire but you also will get a false alarm every time you burn the dinner; make it not sensitive enough and you'll have no false alarms but you might have false acceptances, where you say everything is ok when really there is a fire.

    I'm dealing with the same issue here. If I make it perfect on predictive power (so that everyone you draft is a 78 or higher player), then you will "miss" a lot of good players; if I make it so you don't miss any good players, then you will falsely accept bad players. I've tweaked it to my preference, but if you want to tweak it differently, then do some experiments and see what fits you best.

    Below, the term Predictive Power means, "how likely it is someone that this list says is good will be 78 or higher overall". The term Missed Opportunities means "how many 78+ level players this list will not identify."
  2. Pay attention to the "player types" in your Coach Settings. I run a 4-3, and recently drafted a 4-3 OLB who during the draft it said was an 86...yet when I see him on my roster he is only a 71! The reason is that I had the OLB set up as a pass rusher type, and he is a Cover-2 type. So I went into Coach Settings and changed player type for the OLB to be Cover-2 and all is well.

    One good strategy is to make one OLB a Cover-2 and one a speed rusher. Make one WR a speed guy, one a possession guy, one a red zone threat. Make each offensive line position and defensive line position a different specialty. Then when you draft a player, you can simply adjust the roster to put him in the position on your team that matches. If you make all your OLB preferences the same, then only certain types of OLB will work for you.
  3. If you enjoy this - please read other things on my site! I apply the same level of nerdy thoroughness to my approaches to religion and politics and philosophy, and I think / hope you will find it useful and thought-provoking!


Without further ado, here are the new rules. (Read the original post if you need more detail and for some other general hints such as how to use the Watch List appropriately.)

QUARTERBACK  
Predictive Power:  86%
Missed Opportunities:  22%
  • Throwing power:  A- or higher.
  • Top 3 skills:  All must be B or higher

RUNNING BACK 
Predictive Power:  90%
Missed Opportunities:  8%
  • Top 3 skills:  All must be above B+
  • Combine results:  7.5 overall or higher

WIDE RECEIVER 
Predictive Power:  50%
Missed Opportunities:  14%
  • Do not scout receivers until last, because you will want to use the Combine to help cull out players and not waste scouting points.
  • Top 3 skills:  all B- or better
  • Catching:  B or better
  • Combine Results:  3 Cone score 6.75 or better (lower)
TIGHT ENDS
Predictive Power:  67%
Missed Opportunities:  25%
  • Like receivers, this one is very tough to pick.
  • Top 3 skills need to average B-
  • Combine Results:  40 yard dash time must be 4.65 or better

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN 
Predictive Power:  83%
Missed Opportunities:  28%
  • At least one skill should be a B+, all all skills should average a "B" overall
  • Combine Results:  Bench press score should be 32 or higher 

DEFENSIVE END 
Predictive Power:  50%
Missed Opportunities:  40%
  • This one it seems that I'm being overly critical here; a missed opportunity of 40% means I could probably adjust this to be better. But frankly I have just not had much luck here so I'm not trying much more. I just rely on Free Agency for this role, or get OLB and DT and then change their position!
  • Top 3 skills should all be B or better
  • Combine Results:  Bench press score should be 32 or higher

DEFENSIVE TACKLE  
Predictive Power:  83%
Missed Opportunities:  5%
  • Along with HB and CB, this one is a star of my analysis system. I'm always stacked here and can often use them for DE.
  • Block shedding:  B or better
  • Top 3 skills:  All B- or better
  • Combine Results:  Bench press score should be 32 or higher

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER
Predictive Power:  57%
Missed Opportunities:  0%
  • The lower predictive power here is because often you end up with C+ as the third score but you aren't sure if Finesse Moves is also C+, making it hard to know what to do.
  • Hit power:  B- or better
  • Finesse moves:  C+ or better

MIDDLE LINEBACKER
Predictive Power:  75%
Missed Opportunities:  5%
  • Top 3 average:  B+ or better
  • Tackle must be B+ or better

CORNERBACK
Predictive Power:  95%
Missed Opportunities:  11%
  • Man Coverage:  B or better
  • Zone Coverage: B or better
  • Press Coverage:  B- or better

FREE SAFETY
Predictive Power:  90%
Missed Opportunities:  11%
  • Hit Power:  B+ or better
  • Pursuit:  B or better
  • Zone Coverage:  B- or better

STRONG SAFETY
Predictive Power:  43%
Missed Opportunities:  30%
  • Hit Power:  B- or better
  • Play Recognition:  C+ or better
  • Combine Results:  7.0 overall or higher

FULLBACK, KICKER, PUNTER
  • Don't waste your draft picks.
  • Draft extra HB or TE and convert them to FB
  • Get K and P through free agency 

SAMPLE RESULT
  • Here was my draft from a few minutes ago:
  1. 1st round:  ROLB, 86 overall
  2. 2nd round:  HB, 79 overall
  3. 3rd round:  WR, 77 overall
  4. 4th round:  HB, 80 overall
  5. 5th round:  LT, 76 overall (passed all tests except bench press, so kept him on as a value pick this late)
  6. 6th round:  MLB, 66 overall (no one on my list was still available so I just took whoever)
  7. 7th round:  CB, 68 overall (no one on my list was still available so I just too whoever)
Within 5-6 seasons of this, your team will be absolutely stacked as well as very deep, and cheap since so many starters will still be on your rookie contract.

Enjoy!
--Michael

_______________________________________________________________________

Original post (04 Sept 2015)

Now, for something a bit different...

I am a huge, huge HUGE Madden franchise fan. It is the one video game I cannot wait to have each year, and it is fantastic. I especially love (because I'm a loser/nerd/whatever) to build franchises.

The key to a successful franchise, long-term, is scouting properly. Through the draft you can add depth and some starters far cheaper than you can through the free agent market; plus they will be in their peak years when you have them, rather than aging as high paid veterans. Filling your team with recently-drafted players also means that you have more cap space to sign the stud free agents or lock up high performers to long-term deals.

The problem is that scouting is often hard to do at a high level of accuracy. Madden 16 is particularly clever and has the best scouting method in any of the games thus far--and the hardest to "crack" and thereby find hidden gems late in the draft.

Lucky for you...I'm a huge nerd, and I've already cracked the code.


What follows is a system which--though not full proof--is far better than anything else you will find online.

I tested this against other online advice and found that this system is between 29% and 95% better, statistically, than other systems.

How did I do it? That is partly proprietary, partly embarrassing. Basically, I unlocked every attribute for every player by recording the values in a spreadsheet and then restarting without saving, thus allowing me to have a full spreadsheet of the entire draft. Then I had it autodraft, and added in the output to my spreadsheet. Then I put my engineering statistics to work, doing a multiple linear regression model for each position to predict the outcome. This allowed me to narrow down and create the following "rules" for scouting.

Follow these rules, you succeed. Period. For example, in my most recent draft a few minutes ago, I was able to get: 1st rd: WR 79 overall; 2nd: C 81 overall; 3rd: DT 79 overall; 4th: DT 75 overall; 5th: CB 78 overall; 6th CB 78 overall; 7th FS 66 overall. The only player who wasn't worthy of starting by year two was my 7th round pick.

So enjoy!


THE RULES




  1. Scout each week, don't wait until year end.  In Madden 16, you lose half your scouting points each week. If you spend them each week and have the 'scouting' upgrade package as a coach, this means you have roughly 4000 scouting points to spend each year. If you wait until the season if over you will only have about 300 to spend. Obviously this is a 93% advantage to doing it weekly.
  2. Use the Watch List. As you go through the following positions, any time a player is "draftable" or "passes" the tests below, you should hit triangle (on PS4 version) to add them to your Watch List. That way during the draft you can simply hold L2 and toggle to your Watched players, and then you'll always have your list of passing players. It will make tracking them much easier.
  3. Projected Round and Overall Grades are USELESS--ignore them.  My linear regression analysis showed generally an R-sq value of less than 10% for both projected round and overall grade--meaning that there is a TON of variability within those guidelines. The only value is that the "undrafted" projection is accurate--my analysis showed that there is less than a 1% chance that a player ranked as "projected round: undrafted" will be of a quality worth making your team. It's not worth spending even 1 scouting point. So in each of the below, I consider a position "fully scouted" when you have scouted every player who has a projected round above from 1-7; I ignore the undrafted players completely. Other than this, though, the grade and round are weakly valuable at best (exceptions noted below). (I love this because it mimics the uncertainty of real scouting in football).
  4. Quarterbacks (TEST:  TPwr >A-, Top3Avg > B+).  Start with the QB position. For QBs, you want at least a throwing power of A- and if you average the three attributes together they must be at least a B+. So for example, if you are unlocking a player and you get throwing power of B+, you should stop immediately. Do not waste any more points on him. He failed the test. Also if you are unlocking players and you get TPwr A- and then unlock the second one and it is Short Accuracy C+, you can go ahead and stop. A- and C+ will never average to be a B+ or better. You want something like A-,B+,B to be the top three scores.  Probability of good pick: 98%.
  5. Offensive Linemen (TEST:  Run Blk B+, Pass Blk B-).  After fully scouting QB position, go to your offensive linemen. You want to see a run block score of at least B+ and pass block of at least B-. Pass blocking will have the biggest impact on overall ability, but is more rare. If you can't get at least a B+ in run blocking he will not stand out from the crowd. Probability of good pick: 61%.
  6. Tight Ends (TEST:  At least one catching skills is a B, Top3Avg > B-).  When you have scouted all five offensive line positions, you can move to tight ends. With tight ends, you should ignore anyone who does not have at least a B in one of the three catching attributes (Catch, Catch In Traffic, Spectacular Catch). If he passes that test, then go ahead and unlock all the other attributes. His top 3 should average a B-. (So for example: B-, B-, C+ fails--the average is below B-). Probability of good pick: 72%.
  7. Defensive Tackle (TEST:  Top3Avg > B-).  Next up, begin scouting the defensive tackles, who are generally the most likely to have a deep draft on this list, but also it is rare to get a true stud (79 or higher). The problem is that those who are studs are statistically impossible to predict compared to the solid picks (73-78). But if you make sure their top 3 average is B- or higher, then you always know you have value at the position. Probability of good pick: 77%.
  8. Linebackers (TEST:  Top3Avg > B).  Linebacker will eat up a lot of your scouting points but it is worth it. Anyone who averages a B or higher overall is worth rostering. However, LB is one of the hardest positions to predict with the scouting in Madden 16. Choosing at random or using other online systems will give you a good LB pick about 30% of the time; our system increases that nearly double, but there are still going to be a lot of misses. Probability of good pick: 55%.
  9. Free Safety (TEST:  Pursuit >C+, Top3Avg > B-).  After fully scouting all linebackers you are probably in the second half of your season. Now let's move to FS. For free safety, scout until you can find out the Pursuit score. If Pursuit is at least C+ or higher, keep going. You should 'watch' the player if their top 3 average is at least a B- and their pursuit is C+. Probability of good pick: 69%.
  10. Strong Safety (TEST:  Power >B-, Top3Avg > B-).  Strong safety is the hardest to project. My system is not significantly better than any others; the linear regression could find no statistically significant predictors. It is slightly better to follow the advice here than flipping a coin, but not much better. Hit power above B- and top 3 average above B- is the best I can advise. Probability of good pick: 28%.
  11. Cornerback (TEST:  Combine score > 7.0, MCov > B, Top3Avg > B).  As you get to cornerback you are near the end of your season. Start unlocking them, only "watching" players with Man Coverage of B or higher and the top 3 average together for B or higher. Then after the season, when you get the combine results, come back and check these. Make sure and "unwatch" any player who was a B overall but ended up with a combine worse than 7.0. Probability of good pick: 95%.
  12. Wide Receiver (TEST:  Combine score > 6.7, Top3Avg > B-, Grade 1).  The wide receiver position is one of the rare ones where the overall grade is valuable. You only want to consider players here who have grades of 1 and whose top 3 attributes average to be a B- or better. In addition, when the combine results are in, you should eliminate any player who has a combine score below 6.7. Probability of good pick: 88%.
  13. Defensive Ends (TEST:  Bench > 28 reps, Shed Block > B+).  By now, you are definitely in the offseason, probably in the last 2-3 weeks. Check the combine results and only show interest in players of 28 reps or higher. For those, only 'watch' players with block shedding above B+. Probability of good pick: 51%.
  14. Running Backs (TEST:  40 yd dash < 4.60, Grade 2).  Finally, it's time to scout the running backs. You don't want to bother wasting points on anyone who has a speed worse than a 4.60. After that, unlock all three attributes and anyone of Grade 2 or better has a high likelihood of being a good player.  Probability of good pick: 64%.
  15. FB/K/P...NOPE.  And no I didn't analyze fullbacks, kickers, or punters because they are basically worthless from a draft standpoint. There are always serviceable players at these positions for cheap on the waiver wires. Don't waste a pick on these.

One final note:  I know some of you are thinking..."51% defensive end probability...might as well flip a coin! Why bother following this?" Remember that I'm saying there is a 51% probability that the player you pick will be equal to or greater than 75 overall. There are maybe 2 defensive ends in any given draft of that talent, out of around 25 choices...meaning that by random chance you are only 8% likely to get the right one. The online suggestions I'm seeing suggested generally give you about a 25-30% chance. So a 51% chance that any DE you pick will be better than 75 is actually really, really good. Even the SS position--my worst predictor--is three times better than random chance and twice as good as most online systems.


So there you go. I'm sure approximately 0 people have read this far. But hey...at least I have it for my future reference in case I lose the spreadsheet. And now I can open it in a browser on my phone. So totally worth it. :)

(Even if my wife did just roll her eyes so hard when she saw this that they nearly came out of her head.)

85 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. I think I'm going to do connect franchise to just draft a team

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  3. Do you have a spreadsheet of all of this data? How many draft classes did you test this with? Is it possible I can get access to your numbers at all?

    Nevertheless, great write-up. Thanks for the information.

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    1. Sure, I uploaded the raw data here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mtf9KeO8rYdiHWbuoCTOuIOJuj0jn6_MgcFYhlt-Us8/edit?usp=sharing

      A few comments:

      1. The regression analysis was done only on one class. I have now used it for 10 recruiting classes and it holds pretty well.

      2. The next level: (1) it has too many "false negatives" or "misses" on WRs--it is too exclusive and kicks out some good ones; (2) it tends to do a much better job with MLB than the OLB, but generally I can then just change their position before the preseason and they do great; (3) it is REALLY good at finding hidden gems on DT, who I often then change over to be RE and LE, because there just aren't that many great ends in Madden 16. (No matter your draft strategy, you can't find them if they don't exist).

      I would say it is holding well enough that I probably won't be taking to that next level but you're welcome to. I generally get at least one 79-83 overall, a couple of 76-78s, and a couple of 74-75s. Then when you get into 6th-7th rounds you are lucky to get above a 70 because they are generally all picked by then. But generally you can get 1-2 immediate starters, 1-2 future starters, and a couple of solid backups. I'm pretty happy so far.

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    2. Michael - any chance for clean version of this with just formulas. Im not so inclined as you are and it would help me out a ton in this hobby of mine.

      Frank Natale
      drfranknatale@gmail.com

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  4. One other note:

    If you have two players that are equally good at a position, go to their Combine results. Along the right side of the Combine results will be a list of their ranks within the position. The top 3 scores at the position are "green." You can take this as a description of how athletic the player is overall.

    So if you have two players who on my rules are basically the same, choose the one who has the most 'green' parts of his Combine score sheet, as he is the superior athlete--and athletic skills cost a lot to upgrade in general.

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  5. I'm in an upper level stats class right now. I'm going to take some time over the next few weeks and get data on a few classes and punch it into the program we use and see what kind of conclusions I can draw. I'm thinking with the right sys data set and right approach it will be pretty easy to identify the outliers.

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    1. I would be interested to see what you may have come up with. This is something that interests me, but Im not proficient with excel.

      If you can please email me at drfranknatale@gmail.com

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    2. Sorry for delay, been on vacation and traveling for work. I have sent it to this email address Anonymous.

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    3. Michael - thank you for the e-mail. Excel I understand, but this other software is like trying to read Japanese to me. Any way to make a simple version of this on excel where formulas are in and all I would have to do is plug in the data from the game?

      Frank

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  6. Excellent post, love all the helpful tips. I had a Q about RB/WRs: when you mention that the Grades need to be 1 for WRs or 2 and better for RBs does that refer to the final round projection you get from unlocking all 3 attributes? If the guy was a projected 2nd rounder, you unlock all 3 and it either confirms that saying he's an Early/Mid/Late 2nd round pick or upgrades him slightly to a late 1st (I've never seen dramatic upticks, but very major downgrades do appear frequently).

    Just wanted to make sure I understood what you meant by "grade", because if that's the case you could save a lot of time not scouting guys with initial projections of 3rd round or below because the final grade is never more than a round higher.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Correct that is precisely what I meant, and good point - that could save a lot of time.

      Sometimes you can still get good WRs/RBs without those grades, it's just more of a "crap shoot" so it didn't pass into the model's results.

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    2. I wouldn't stick to not scouting late round WR's. I just drafted yesterday and found an 82 overall receiver in the 5th round with 4.3 speed. Wasn't given a great draft grade and was projected 6th and showed 5th round talent. That being said, his only bad attribute is of course awareness. The easiest stat to raise. So just a heads up, don't give up on the late round guys

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  7. Do OLB have higher str on average than DEs? I am looking specifically for fast and strong players, what is the best position to find this? Thanks

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    1. No, the DE have a much higher strength on average.

      Average DE strength: 28 reps
      Average OLB strength: 19.5 reps

      Of course you pay for that with speed:

      Average DE 40yd dash: 4.84
      Average OLB 40 yd dash: 4.68


      I have found on many occasions that you can play an OLB as a DE and get a really good grade, or a DT as a DE and get a really good grade--but that DE don't move to the other spots quite as good unless they are exceptional. A DE with a 40 time in the 4.6 range can play either spot; but a DE of average 4.8 or higher speed is likely to struggle as an OLB. On the other hand, an "A" OLB can be easily changed to a DE.

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  8. do you have a functional spreadsheet that you could post? I like the idea of your system, but want to enter my drafts players and see how they grade out to compare. if you could post something, it would be greatly appreciated. thanks for the hard work!

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    Replies
    1. Please see my comment below which has my sheet. However, please note that the actual work was done in Minitab, not Excel, which is not something that is readily available for most people. So the file I had was just the data-collection file.

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  9. Hi Michael, this is great, any chance you can put up a blank excel doc that I can plus the data from my draft into so I can track it, with the formulas you use. Thanks.

    - Frank Natale
    drfranknatale@gmail.com

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  10. All:

    So glad that many of you enjoyed it. If you are wanting a copy of the input file I used with all the raw data of the players in this draft class discussed above, see here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/5ywrgs6gu9b6tyd/Madden16.xlsx?dl=0

    However please note that the analysis files are a Minitab project, not openable in Excel.

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  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  12. I am trying to figure out the formulas for excel and having no luck. Has anyone already did this to save me time.

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  14. What would you base WR's on if no one has a combine grade of >6.7 actually out of the 27 WR's in rds.1-7 only 3 have a 6.5 combine grade and 2 with 6.4 combine grade the rest are lower. Should I use the rule of B avg?

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    1. Instead of using the whole combine I advice you to look at specifically the 40-dash time. Oh and if you are playing yourself and not just simulating it's good to have height of course.

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  15. What would you base WR's on if no one has a combine grade of >6.7 actually out of the 27 WR's in rds.1-7 only 3 have a 6.5 combine grade and 2 with 6.4 combine grade the rest are lower. Should I use the rule of B avg?

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  16. Just as a small note....I wanted a quick MLB so I used this guide to draft a MLB. He had B+ tackling B+ pursuit and B- Hit Power...when the off season came he was also the #1 MLB for 40 time...he ended up having 87 speed and overall was 76...But I compared him to my SS and when I changed his position his overall as a SS was 85..Bottom line, if you want to steal an in the box SS, go for a MLB with a top 3 tackling/pursuit/hit power avg, and he must have a decent 40 time (lower than 4.60)

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    1. Down side of course is that his zone coverage was 76 and his man coverage is 63

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    2. I am a big fan of cross pollination with linebackers and safeties, however i realized i was giving up a ton of big plays with converted linebackers at safety because the coverage grades were mid 60s.

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  17. Thank you! With these tips I found a 84 overall superstar development OLB in the 4th round! Along with a 80 overall superstar free safety in the 5th!

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  18. I am also a huge fan of this game and I like your all ideas. But I would like to add few more like: Collect your favorite NFL players from the past and present and build the Ultimate Team you’ve always dreamed of. Dominate in head-to-head Seasons, Solo Challenges, Ultimate Moments, and more. Earn Coins to buy Packs in the online Store, or auction and trade in the Marketplace. Experience the real NFL year-round thanks to live content and service updates in the fastest-growing mode in Madden.

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  19. I drafted a wr with great combine numbers and decent top 3 traits in the fifth round. He was a 72 at wr but moved to 79 as a rb with 98 speed 96 agility and 95+ elusiveness and juke move. I've never found an rb with higher than 92 speed from the draft so I would definitely recommend this strategy when looking for speed backs. Has anyone found a way to determine development trait? I have drafted several high rated players (84+) that have normal or lower development traits.

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    1. I have never figured out how to get the development trait, which is a frustration for me. :(

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    2. The best way I've found to get superstar dev traits is to pay attention to the media news feeds throughout the season and make note/add to watch list those players with favorable mentions. Players that say have learned a ton from the fact their dad played, or who've transitioned from another sport have a high rate of being superstars.

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  20. Thanks so much for this! I'm trying it now for the first time. I do have a question about offensive linemen. I'm confused about the methodology. Many times the first skill is not Pass Blocking or Run Blocking. And I've found that most of the linemen don't have both Pass Blocking AND Run Blocking in their three skills. So my question is, if I unlock the fist skill and it's not pass blocking or run blocking, do I just move on from that player? Also, if the first skill is run blocking or pass blocking, do I unlock the other three or knowing that grade is all that's necessary? In other words, once you know their pass blocking or run blocking do you move on or spend points to unlock the other skills? I hope that makes sense.

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    1. If the first one that you unlock is say Impact Blocking and it is a B+, I would keep going. Sometimes you'll get someone who is an Impact Block B+, Strength B+, Run Block B+ so you don't know that the B- in pass block is met. But if he is above B- in the other three it is a good bet he will be a good player and you should take him anyway.

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    2. Michael, can i ask a follow up on this? If i know coming in that i want to develop a pass heavy offense, can i flip the Pass Block v Run block grade requirements or are you strong recommending that I stick to the platform of B+ run block vs B- pass block?

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    3. Yes in my latest update I found that merely havingB+ in either is ok

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  21. When you mention grade for receivers, what are you referring to? This is fantastic, Thanks!

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    1. Yes sorry - I meant that you unlock all three attributes and they give you a "Draft Grade"--like "1st round talent" "2nd round talent" etc.

      WRs are very hard to catch. Often the best receiver in the draft is a 3rd round talent who turns out to be great.

      But in any statistical situation, you have to choose whether to have a high "false positive" rate or a high "false negative" rate--you can't help it. That's just math, you have to balance them.

      My analysis is designed to have a low false negative rate--that is, if you draft a WR who meets this criteria, you are very unlikely to have a 'bust'. However, you also are less likely to find a 'sleeper'.

      In most of the categories on this list it is balanced well, but the WR one is the biggest crap shoot of them, the hardest to project.

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    2. I drafted back to back elite super star dev wrs in my last two seasons, and I usually have good success with wrs. What I go by to get high quality ones is this: their combine is near the top but not at the top, their three discovered traits are all at the top, and their usually projected to go top 10 or so.

      Just throwing that out if it manages to ring a bell for you to find a pattern.

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    3. To elaborate, both were over 78, one was a 98 spd 98 acc guy with 80 or so rte, the other was a 6'4'' 96 spd 98 jmp 90 cth/cit god that quickly became nearly unstoppable. Both were super star Dev.

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  22. Thanks a bunch, this is awesome

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  23. Do you have to scout all three traits on all the players? Is there a way to save points by only scouting the first and second perhaps? In Madden 25 I was able to scout 3-5 abilities and immediately knew whether they would be above average. Because of that I was able to save A TON of scout points and not waste my time on busts.

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    1. I don't think you read carefully above. On some you scout all three but on most you do not--follow step by step and you will always have a good list without running out of points

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    2. Is it assumed that the first scout trait is the best? If so, then it should match your requirements here? Is that correct? If so, you didn't make that abundantly clear.

      Delete
  24. Very cool man.. Thanks for the hard work! I used your process in my draft last night and it definitely works.

    ReplyDelete
  25. I've had great results with this, but I am confused about one thing: is the DE scouting only for 3-4 ends? I run a 4-3 and have never found a 4-3 end that met the criteria you have.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The new update should account for this better

      Delete
  26. Michael,

    Love the site. Has helped a ton. With the surprise patch/update for CFM that was released week the draft classes have seen significant changes. (It affects only newly created CFMs post patch)This method hasn't proven to be nearly as effective for me since the patch. It could be small sample bias, but Madden showed in their patch notes that the draft classes have changed significantly. Have you seen what I am talking about? Is there anyway you could run another MLR on the draft classes? Thanks so much man. Reboot christianity is awesome.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks dude appreciate it! I haven't played in the past week so I had not seen this!

      I will get on this during the weekend and post the results here!!

      Delete
    2. Awesome! Thanks so much!!!!

      Delete
  27. This is great stuff, thanks for posting it!

    A couple of questions since the new patch.
    - Does your order in which you scout change now? Or for the ones that require combine, do you just scout as normal and then remove the players that don't meet the minimum after the combine is posted?

    - When you say for HB that all must be above B+, are you saying A- or better? Or B+ at a minimum?

    ReplyDelete
  28. Thanks a bunch, I'm liking the update, though haven't drafted yet. In the past I've averaged 2-3 starters using the old system so I'm looking forward!

    ReplyDelete
  29. Great read, it's helped in the run into our online leagues first draft this week, what would you look for in impact block on oline players, I'm looking for B or better would that be to low?

    ReplyDelete
  30. Some additional info regarding Combine Results
    List of the scouted skills and what the letters translate to...

    A+ 99, 98, 97, 96.
    A 95, 94, 93.
    A- 92, 91, 90.
    B+ 89, 88, 87, 86.
    B 85, 84, 83.
    B- 82, 81, 80.
    C+ 79, 78, 77, 76.
    C 75, 74, 73.
    C- 72, 71, 70.
    D 69, 68, 67, 66 (possibly lower)

    STRENGTH is based on the bench press reps.


    41reps = 95
    40reps = 94
    39reps = 93
    38reps = 92
    37reps = 91
    36reps = 90
    35reps = 89
    34reps = 88
    33reps = 87
    32reps = 86
    31reps = 85
    30reps = 84
    29reps = 83
    28reps = 82

    Any reps under 28 go down in descending order but can have two or more results, eg 23reps = 76/75 strength.

    SPEED is based on the 40 yard dash and translates as follows (40yd - speed)...

    4.24 - 99
    4.27 - 98
    4.30 - 97
    4.32 - 96
    4.35 - 95
    4.38 - 94
    4.41 - 93
    4.43 - 92
    4.46 - 91
    4.49 - 90
    4.52 - 89
    4.54 - 88
    4.57 - 87
    4.60 - 86
    4.63 - 85
    4.65 - 84
    4.68 - 83
    4.71 - 82
    4.74 - 81
    4.76 - 80
    4.79 - 79
    4.82 - 78
    4.85 - 77
    4.87 - 76
    4.90 - 75
    4.93 - 74
    4.96 - 73
    4.98 - 72
    5.01 - 71
    5.04 - 70
    5.07 - 69
    5.09 - 68
    5.12 - 67
    5.15 - 66
    5.18 - 65
    5.20 - 64
    5.23 - 63
    5.26 - 62
    5.29 - 61
    5.31 - 60
    5.34 - 59
    5.37 - 58
    5.40 - 57
    5.42 - 56
    5.45 - 55
    5.48 - 54
    5.51 - 53
    5.53 - 52
    5.56 - 51
    5.59 - 50

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Btw, the strategy is great. I've been through a couple of drafts and it has produced consistently. Thanks

      Delete
    2. Glad you enjoy!

      And thanks for the above list - that is really good stuff. I've thought of doing that myself but hadn't gotten around to it...now I don't have to.

      It might also be interesting to see if you could do the same for agility / acceleration (3 cone) and jumping?

      Delete
    3. Agility/Acceleration: http://i.imgur.com/QzJo7Kp.jpg
      Jumping:
      JUMPING is based on vert jump and translates as follows (vert - jumping)...
      43.0 - 98
      42.3 - 97
      41.7 - 96
      41.1 - 95
      40.5 - 94
      39.9 - 93
      39.3 - 92
      38.7 - 91
      38.1 - 90
      37.6 - 89
      37.0 - 88
      36.5 - 87
      35.9 - 86
      35.4 - 85
      34.9 - 84

      Stole this information from reddit lol.

      https://www.reddit.com/r/Madden/comments/3pkjfy/madden_16_scouting_and_combine_tips/

      Delete
    4. Awesome.... thanks for the info Andre!

      Delete
  31. Hello, I love this strategy, thank you! My only question is about the WR. When looking at combine results for 3-cone drill, I found that almost all the WR are under 6' tall. Is this my mistake or did you find this too?

    ReplyDelete
  32. Been using this for quite some time now and I've got some feedback.

    -SS, I have never seen one with a combine score as high as you say.

    - I end up watching about 60 players total. They are all gone by round 3.

    - My drafted players are averaging closer to 74-76 and not 78. I get maybe one 80 in the draft and the rest are sitting around that 74 range, if I'm lucky to get a choice of one of my other watched.

    - This is still by far the best scouting guide out there

    I'm really disappointed with this year's scouting system. It went backwards. I had far better luck in M25 using a scout guide I found. By understanding the percentage values that made up an overall, all I had to do was scout the first guess letter and I was pretty much guaranteed to get someone good and find actual diamonds in the rough.

    Thanks for all the hard work. I use it constantly.

    -G

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I say this and then do a draft where I dominated. Just did a draft and here's what I picked up:
      1: QB 81
      3: CB 76
      4: CB 77
      5: C 75
      5: LT 77
      6: LE 71
      7: RT 70

      You HAVE to get multiple picks in rounds or you won't even get a chance at 3/4 of the players you've watched. I placed all the players in the roster and have 4 above 80.

      Delete
    2. Adding to the most recent pull, their development:
      1 Superstar
      3 Superstar
      4 Superstar
      5 Superstar
      5 Superstar
      6 Normal
      7 Superstar

      If it says "Excellent Pick" then they should be a superstar.

      Delete
  33. How can put players on the watch list?? Please need help

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Press "Y" while you have the player selected. Not looking at the draft card, but just in the overall scouting menu. Put your cursor over the player and press "Y"

      Delete
  34. Hey you are putting too much emphasis on bench for defensive ends. You can get solid pass rushers with a strength rating of around 70 or so. If you lowered your bench standard for the position, you will probably raise your success rate.

    ReplyDelete
  35. I've never found a SS or FS with those numbers in over 10 drafts. Is that a typo or something?

    ReplyDelete
  36. Any significant, meaningful correlation between the top 3 attributes that arise and the player's noted "Type" and "Scheme." I am working on a hypothesis that a players noted Type and Scheme on their player card reflects the dominant strengths of their attributes. Thus, it might be meaningful if a top 3 attribute arises ideally support their Type of play with given Scheme. It also might be meaningful if the player has top 3 attributes which loosely support the ideal Type-Scheme relationship (i.e. the player is highly versatile).

    ReplyDelete
  37. Little observation I made that mostly pertains to Outside Linebackers. You say the predictive power is so low because you won't always know what the finesse moves score is. What I've noticed is that when attributes are the same grade, they'll get scouted in a set order. For an example, in a class I'm scouting right now, I have a linebacker with B- f moves, B- pursuit, and B- hit power. What that tells me is that any time I'm scouting and f moves doesn't show up as a top 3, with one of pursuit or hit power being a C+, is that f move will 100% not be a C+. So it's kind of a way of knowing attributes that don't get scouted.

    ReplyDelete
  38. I hate math. Never understood it, but this is great info! Thanks so much! Been very helpful.

    ReplyDelete
  39. very good info!
    I have done nearly 10-15 online drafts this madden and I found some of what you said But you really know your stuff! I just cut my watch list in half (going into draft after one more round of free agency) in an online league. looking to trade for some more picks now!!

    Thanks man!

    ReplyDelete
  40. Just wondering for those that do this if the draft plays out close to the round guys are supposed to be drafted in.

    There is a QB that fits the criteria and he is supposed to go in the third. Should I take him late in the first to make sure I get him? Also, there is a CB and a HB in the 5th that look like gems according to the system. Will they be around by the 3rd or will they be gone?

    The CB I am looking at that has a 5th round grade is basically off the combine chart and fits the mold here B+ B B... Don't want to lose out on him.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You need to look at the overall scope of the position. How many 1st round talents are there at QB? You may want to reach for a 3rd round talent if you have a dire need and there are no other talents waiting. QB is the most important position in Madden, so a reach here is acceptable.

      I would never reach for a HB. Those are a dime a dozen in Madden and most are worthless, regardless of ratings. You can always trade for one in the preseason off the trading block for a 7th round pick and not miss it.

      CB is another position where you need to base it judging the rest of the pool. How many others are around them? A deeper pool can allow for patience. A shallow talent pool will deplete quickly and you may need to reach.

      Delete
  41. Just want to give a success story...I just drafted a WR with at pick #90 with B catching, B release and B- catch in traffic, 6.7 3 cone and 4.35 40 yd dash. He is the 5th-rated talent in the draft.

    Here's the funny part - the EA board said he was a 6th-round talent!

    ReplyDelete
  42. Going to throw my success story in as well. My league doesn't look for realism at all. If you can go get players/picks and the computer is willing to do it you are good to go. After our fantasy draft most went after the OBJ's Julio's and known stars in the league. I traded for picks and average talent guys that fit the scheme I run. I ended up with 3 1sts and 4 3rds. THere were guys I wanted at the top of the draft and guys toward the bottom. I didn't learn this method until after most of my scout points had been spent so I had to take who I could based on my limited scout. An issue I won't have next season.

    1st: (4 pick overall): CB 80 overall Normal 20 overall talent
    1st: (11 pick overall): LG 80 overall Superstar 16 overall talent
    1st: (26 pick overall): QB 81 overall Superstar 8 overall talent
    3rd: (80 pick overall): CB 78 overall Superstar Can't remember
    3rd: (83 pick overall): HB 79 overall Superstar Can't remember
    3rd: (85 pick overall): RG 80 overakl Quick Can't remember
    3rd: (96 pick overall): DT 83 overall Superstar #3 TRUE TALENT

    The first two players were slight reaches where I took them. All my other players were value from their drafted position compared to their true talent. The only thing I could have done better was taken some of the players later. Most had 4th-5th round ratings and I took them in the 3rd to make sure my targets didn't get away. Getting the 3rd best player in the draft with the last pick in the 3rd put the icing on the cake.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Hey, this is amazing. I used it all the time for Madden 16. Are you doing it again this year?

    ReplyDelete
  44. I would like to know that as well

    ReplyDelete
  45. I will definitely be doing it. Just got my new copy today and will get started. Give me a week or two and I will post updates. ��

    ReplyDelete
  46. That is great to here you guide help me out a lot in Madden 16.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Alright guys...MADDEN 17 guide is up--and with the changes they made, something like this is more important than ever!

    Check it out, hope you all enjoy!

    http://rebootchristianity.blogspot.com/2016/09/breaking-code-to-madden-17-scouting.html

    ReplyDelete
  48. Great post man. Im definitely bookmarking your site. Just ran a draft with 6 picks all between 85-78 OVR, and most were middle round picks.

    ReplyDelete
  49. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Following your model, I drafted a DT in round 5 who was projected as a late 5th round pick. His talent grade complied with that projection. Once I drafted him, a saw a huge number "83" pop up next to his head. He was #5 in true talent and I drafted him in the FIFTH ROUND!! Not all of the picks were as good, but this model is golden towards the later stages of the draft. It also helped me accumulate multiple picks for the following season when the model did not suggest any players being worth taking at the current spot in the draft. It was my first draft using this model, so I'm not sure if the sample size was too small or the patch cleared this up. I had ZERO WR's with a combine score over 6.4. Bad class that year? Or did the patch fix that aspect of it? Thanks a lot sir! So enjoyable!!

    ReplyDelete
  51. I'd love to see you add the following tip so that players can seriously maximize their drafts. While this isn't scouting exactly, it ties into the scouting aspect.

    If you receive trade offers during the preseason and don't have an immediate need for the player (they usually offer trades for backups only) consider trading. DO NOT, take the trade offered. Instead, take note of the teams offering and then pick the one you want to trade with based on draft picks they hold. Ask for their upcoming 1st and second (or multiple 1st's if they have them) round picks and their 1st pick for the following draft. Offer them the player they initially wanted and your two lowest draft picks. A 6th and 7th, or whatever you have to work with. Most offers will be accepted. If they don't, sweeten the pot a tiny bit. Change the 7th round pick to a 5th along with the 6th. You should have 5 or more first round picks if done right.

    CAVEAT: I did this with my 2nd tight end. After I traded him and two 5th round picks, I had two 1st round picks and a second. The following week, the team I traded with put him back on the trading block. I traded a 7th round pick and got him back. Fast forward another week and I had trade offers for him by other teams. Another two first round picks and a second for him and lost a 4th and a 5th. I didn't get lucky enough to get him back again, but by the arrival of the trade deadline, I had amassed 6 or 7 1st round picks, 11 2nd round picks, 6 3rd round picks, all for the upcoming draft. I still went 10-6, won the division, and lost the conference championship.

    The next draft was a fun one. Got a QB (81), HB (80), WR (77), TE (78), CB (80), MLB (77), just to name a few. The overall draft was insane and one for the ages.

    I hope this is helpful to everyone and brings rings a-plenty!

    ReplyDelete